Press Release

Primer ETF de bitcoin en EE.UU. podría ser aprobado en 14 días! La inflación sigue desatada en EEUU.

Bitcoin: It was a very good week price-wise for bitcoin, closing +11.65%, at $48,235.

From a technical perspective, we saw increasing prices alongside increasing volumes for Wednesday, Thursday and a big jump on Friday after Jerome Powell’s comments. The timing of the rally coincided with positive statements from the SEC and the Fed.
On Wednesday, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler reiterated his support for a futures-based ETF – citing the bitcoin futures contracts that currently trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

As a reminder, the SEC is scheduled to make decisions on 4 bitcoin ETF applications this month. The relevant dates are still a few weeks away, on the 18th, 19th, and importantly, 2 applications on the 25th.

The first futures-based ETF application scheduled to hear a decision is the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, on October 18th. As per the chart above, Bloomberg Intelligence is projecting a 50% chance of the ProShares ETF being approved on the 18th. The second highest probability of being approved first, at 20%, is Valkyrie’s application, which is also a futures-based ETF. That application is scheduled to hear a decision on the 25th of this month.

October 18th may act as a magnet for bitcoin prices. Similar to what happened with the Coinbase IPO, we might witness a hype wave in the coming weeks that drives prices higher running up to the announcement. If this happens, keep in mind what happened with Coinbase and remember the adage “buy the rumour, sell the news”.

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated to congress that the U.S. has no plans to ban bitcoin or cryptocurrency.

Powell was specifically asked about the ban in China and point-blank responded that the U.S. has no plans for anything similar. Powell cited stablecoins as posing potential financial risks, and the Fed’s intention is to get participants to comply with existing frameworks.
In the same week, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission made favourable statements for bitcoin. The powerful combination had an impact on prices that should carry forward.
Another signal of growing institutional appetite outside the U.S. came out of Morgan Stanley’s Europe Opportunity fund last week.

According to a recent filing, the fund disclosed that it held 58,116 GBTC shares as of July 31st, up from 28,298 GBTC shares which it disclosed on April 31st.

Institutional appetite for bitcoin in this fund doubled in 3 months. To put that in context, at that pace, it would grow 16X over the course of a year. That’s massive growth in investor interest.

What’s ahead for the week:

As always, we wrap up with a summary of the upcoming economic data and earnings reports for the week:

8.15 AM EST – September 2021 ADP Employment report for the U.S.
Expectation is for an increase of +373,000 Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for the month – slightly down from August’s +374,000 increase. There’s a lot more employment data coming out throughout the week. As we covered above – these announcements could move markets as investors react to potential surprises.

8.30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims (+362,000)
8.30 AM EST – Continuing Jobless Claims (2.8 Million)
8.30 AM EST – U.S. Unemployment for September (+5.2%)
8.30 AM EST – U.S. Non-farm payrolls for September (235,000)
8.30 AM EST – Average Hourly Wages for September (+0.6%)
Investors will be paying close attention to labour market data this week and markets could react to the data. Remember that any “positive” surprises (such as more new jobs) will likely cause markets to sell off. While “negative” surprises, (such as more jobless claims than expected) will be cheered by the markets.

This all ties back to the Fed, as it needs to maintain a relaxed fiscal stance as the labour market is weak and recovering.

It’s a big week coming up, and as always, we’ll keep you posted on any relevant news throughout the week right here and from our Twitter account.